Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  21.2  17.9  11.9  19.8  13.8  33.2  28.3  F  N  F  F  N  F  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  46.0  51.0  55.0  33.0  28.0  14.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 115.7 109.4  96.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  60.0  69.0  23.0  39.0  41.0  33.0   7.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       26.5%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       13.1%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       13.1%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       13.1%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       29.4%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%       12.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       16.9%       19.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%       10.1%        9.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        9.2%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP112025 250727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  21.2  17.9  11.9  19.8  13.8  33.2  28.3  U  N  N  U  N  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%