Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  18.0  11.9  15.4  19.8  18.8  34.0  26.3  N  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  54.0  54.0  46.0  29.0  22.0  10.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3 113.6 107.4 105.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  69.0  24.0  10.0  43.0  41.0  23.0  22.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       19.5%       12.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.5%        7.9%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        7.9%        4.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        7.9%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       17.9%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        5.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.6%        9.7%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%        4.9%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        5.6%        5.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP112025 250728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    127.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  18.0  11.9  15.4  19.8  18.8  34.0  26.3  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  59.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%