Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  13.9  14.0  24.9  15.7  28.4  26.4  33.2  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  54.0  39.0  33.0  34.0  12.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 101.6  92.7  81.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  51.0  54.0  95.0  36.0  51.0 -22.0  15.0  N  N  N  F  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       19.9%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        8.1%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.1%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        8.1%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       18.2%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        5.9%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       17.5%        7.1%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%        3.8%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        3.4%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 WP112025 250728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  13.9  14.0  24.9  15.7  28.4  26.4  33.2  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%