Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  12.5  13.6   9.3  16.1  26.3  29.6  34.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  44.0  34.0  34.0  32.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 116.5 106.6  97.7  86.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  35.0  36.0  21.0  43.0  18.0  17.0  19.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.5%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        6.7%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.1%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       18.3%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        6.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       17.8%        6.3%       12.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        3.7%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.4%        3.4%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP112025 250728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.20    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  12.5  13.6   9.3  16.1  26.3  29.6  34.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%