Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  21.9  24.5  15.6  29.4  22.0  19.2  23.9  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  29.0  30.0  18.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 115.7 115.7 105.5  84.6  60.9  58.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  95.0  49.0  17.0  51.0  -7.0  16.0  14.0  N  F  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       11.3%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.0%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        8.5%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        1.4%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP112025 250728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  21.9  24.5  15.6  29.4  22.0  19.2  23.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  50.0  46.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   7.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   8.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%