Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.5  14.5  23.7  35.7  19.1  20.9  21.6  N  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  28.0  17.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 120.1 109.4 109.4  94.4  75.8  64.3  56.7  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  71.0  18.0  20.0  17.0   8.0   7.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        9.5%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        5.3%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        0.9%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        0.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP112025 250729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50    124.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  21.5  14.5  23.7  35.7  19.1  20.9  21.6  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%