Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  13.5  25.5  34.8  19.1  18.7  25.3  26.6  N  F  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  22.0  12.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 111.5 101.6  92.7  80.0  75.8  64.3  64.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  23.0  32.0  49.0 -11.0 -34.0  36.0 -14.0  N  U  N  N  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  11.0   2.0   8.0   9.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.7%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        0.7%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.6%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP112025 250729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  13.5  25.5  34.8  19.1  18.7  25.3  26.6  N  U  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  58.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  11.0   2.0   8.0   9.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%