Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  24.1  32.3  29.3  16.7  21.0  20.9  30.1  F  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  12.0   4.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4  96.6  98.5  89.4  70.8  59.3  51.7  51.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  33.0  49.0  38.0 -16.0 -12.0 -16.0 -12.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   4.0  17.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.2%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.5%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        1.3%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.8%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 WP112025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.