Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  30.4  28.5  17.4  15.9  19.4  26.3  29.5  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   6.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4  96.6  89.4  91.2  81.1  64.2  55.9  55.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  63.0  61.0 -32.0 -28.0 -27.0 -53.0 -10.0  N  N  N VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   4.0  11.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.8%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        1.2%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.12

 WP112025 250729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.