Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.5  17.3  19.0  18.5  22.0  36.1  25.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5  91.2  93.0  93.0  81.1  59.3  59.3  72.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  61.0 -32.0 -20.0  17.0 -20.0 -43.0   0.0  N  N VU VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0  10.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        0.3%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.02

 WP112025 250730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.