Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  14.9  13.9  10.2  13.1  18.9  27.4  29.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2  93.0  81.1  59.3  51.7  51.7  55.9  55.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0 -38.0 -34.0 -15.0  12.0 -24.0   1.0 -14.0  N VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   7.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        0.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 WP112025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.