Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.9  10.5  11.0  16.0  25.1  26.1  40.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  86.1  86.1  64.3  56.7  60.9  64.3  81.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -38.0 -34.0 -15.0   2.0  -9.0 -17.0 -10.0 -20.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        0.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 WP112025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.