Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7   9.5  11.6  14.6  19.5  27.1  25.2  44.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.1  75.4  75.4  65.9  65.9  65.9  65.9  69.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -46.0 -12.0  -3.0 -11.0  -5.0  21.0 -14.0 -57.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        0.0%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.52

 WP112025 250730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.20    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.