Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250731 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.1 10.8 12.7 16.2 25.4 22.1 37.4 29.7 F F F F N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 75.4 75.4 75.4 61.7 69.3 69.3 82.2 N U U U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 12.0 -10.0 -8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 59.0 57.0 58.0 61.0 60.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 2.8% 0.0% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.58 WP112025 250731 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 119.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.