Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250731 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.3 13.2 15.2 21.8 28.7 28.8 42.5 37.4 F F F N N N VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.3 74.3 66.7 66.7 63.7 63.7 80.4 91.5 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -19.0 20.0 -20.0 5.0 -8.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 60.0 65.0 62.0 58.0 60.0 59.0 U U N N N U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.8% 0.0% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.32 WP112025 250731 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.20 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.