Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250731 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 117.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.8 22.3 27.2 23.3 38.9 32.9 44.7 F F N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.7 66.7 66.7 63.7 66.7 75.5 91.5 91.5 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -9.0 -18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 -6.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 61.0 63.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.84 WP112025 250731 12UTC Storm Located at : 32.10 117.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.