Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250731 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 117.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.9 18.6 22.7 22.5 27.9 40.6 41.7 51.4 F N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.9 69.8 63.7 63.7 63.7 66.7 63.7 75.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 1.0 9.0 -9.0 -7.0 -32.0 -34.0 -43.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 59.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 60.0 61.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.00 WP112025 250731 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 117.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.