Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  22.1  24.0  25.7  30.8  30.7  37.9  37.2  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  72.0  66.7  66.7  75.5  88.6  75.5  62.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   3.0  -6.0 -19.0 -16.0 -30.0 -20.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  66.0  58.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  17.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.20

 WP112025 250801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.