Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  25.3  26.8  31.2  30.7  40.2  40.7  42.1  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  80.5  80.5  93.6  93.6  86.7  82.9  74.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -19.0  -8.0 -16.0 -29.0 -18.0 -21.0 -33.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   9.0   2.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.58

 WP112025 250801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.