Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250801 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 117.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 29.6 36.7 37.0 37.8 48.4 50.6 63.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 80.5 80.5 93.6 90.8 82.9 72.7 61.6 U N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 3.0 -31.0 -34.0 -42.0 -56.0 -16.0 0.0 VU U VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 60.0 63.0 63.0 60.0 62.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 15.0 10.0 6.0 2.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.58 WP112025 250801 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 117.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.