Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250802 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 36.8 37.2 34.5 42.7 53.4 51.1 54.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.7 100.0 100.0 97.2 89.2 79.8 79.8 73.7 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -31.0 -34.0 -52.0 -41.0 -33.0 -17.0 5.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 65.0 69.0 67.0 63.0 60.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 12.0 5.0 7.0 1.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.34 WP112025 250802 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.70 118.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.