Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 118.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 37.3 33.3 35.4 47.4 40.7 44.6 57.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 97.2 89.2 85.5 85.5 85.5 66.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -14.0 -33.0 -25.0 -36.0 -10.0 34.0 74.0 VU U VU VU VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 66.0 66.0 64.0 58.0 64.0 57.0 N N N N N U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 5.0 12.0 12.0 6.0 9.0 23.0 N U N U U N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.38 WP112025 250802 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.80 118.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.