Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  39.2  39.3  40.1  40.0  38.2  36.4  35.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  12.0  17.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0  97.2 106.1 116.2 125.5 118.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -20.0  -6.0 -38.0 -61.0 -33.0 -10.0  14.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 WP112025 250802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.