Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250802 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.1 38.6 40.8 47.1 43.4 45.1 45.1 45.1 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.6 104.6 100.0 98.6 85.5 77.7 77.7 77.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 2.0 -26.0 -41.0 -22.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 58.0 57.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.90 WP112025 250802 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.00 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.