Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  33.6  24.9  33.9  41.3  45.0  58.5  66.6  U  U  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  88.0  86.7  81.7  82.9  69.7  71.7  59.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   2.0  12.0  17.0  37.0  34.0  34.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  52.0  61.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   8.0   6.0  13.0  14.0  23.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.20

 WP112025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.