Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.90 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 28.8 42.8 41.0 48.5 60.8 62.7 61.0 U N VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 73.8 72.7 70.7 65.0 68.7 71.7 50.2 39.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 12.0 14.0 8.0 59.0 18.0 38.0 35.0 U U U U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 62.0 U U U VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 8.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 13.0 6.0 12.0 U U VU VU VU U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.98 WP112025 250803 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.90 124.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.