Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250803 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 47.4 54.6 55.1 63.4 50.9 48.7 42.9 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 59.2 51.4 36.6 35.0 25.0 22.8 22.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 -14.0 -20.0 11.0 20.0 28.0 18.0 72.0 U U VU U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 48.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 55.0 59.0 63.0 U U VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -5.0 -12.0 -11.0 -6.0 -7.0 10.0 20.0 N F F F F F U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.78 WP112025 250803 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.