Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250723 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 144.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 52.1 47.4 45.0 45.6 54.0 46.9 52.7 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 131.0 134.0 135.0 133.0 124.0 105.0 80.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF F F N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 118.0 150.0 143.0 137.0 150.0 152.0 176.0 121.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 87.0 87.0 86.0 80.0 76.0 71.0 F F VF VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 2.0 5.0 9.0 3.0 9.0 10.0 N N N N U N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 8.6% 11.5% 10.1% 30kt / 24h 2.3% 2.8% 2.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.3% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 6.0% 13.4% 9.7% 55kt / 36h 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 28.3% 3.5% 15.9% 70kt / 48h 10.3% 2.2% 6.3% 65kt / 72h 41.7% 9.0% 25.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP122025 250723 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 144.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 52.1 47.4 45.0 45.6 54.0 46.9 52.7 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 86.0 87.0 87.0 86.0 80.0 76.0 71.0 U U VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 2.0 5.0 9.0 3.0 9.0 10.0 N N N N F N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%