Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.2  45.1  47.7  46.1  51.2  54.8  47.1  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  129.0 124.0 121.0 116.0 105.0  73.0  48.0  30.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   159.0 152.0 148.0 160.0 170.0 174.0 120.0  56.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  86.0  87.0  86.0  77.0  70.0  69.0  66.0 VF  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  11.0   7.0   4.0  15.0  13.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        6.1%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        1.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        4.2%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.6%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%        1.3%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%        0.5%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       27.6%        3.0%       15.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP122025 250724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.2  45.1  47.7  46.1  51.2  54.8  47.1  35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  86.0  87.0  86.0  77.0  70.0  69.0  66.0 VU  U VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  11.0   7.0   4.0  15.0  13.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%