Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250724 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.1 44.3 42.8 43.7 43.5 43.2 31.3 26.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 130.0 126.0 123.0 120.0 96.0 65.0 39.0 29.0 VF F F F F N U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 121.0 164.0 143.0 160.0 155.0 82.0 39.0 27.0 F VF VF VF VF N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 87.0 84.0 81.0 72.0 64.0 58.0 58.0 F VF F F N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 11.0 14.0 20.0 -5.0 N N N N U U VU F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 15.0% 15.3% 15.1% 30kt / 24h 5.1% 4.6% 4.8% 35kt / 24h 2.3% 4.0% 3.2% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 2.9% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 8.6% 13.1% 10.8% 55kt / 36h 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 55kt / 48h 25.8% 4.8% 15.3% 70kt / 48h 8.9% 2.2% 5.6% 65kt / 72h 29.3% 8.5% 18.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 WP122025 250724 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 143.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.1 44.3 42.8 43.7 43.5 43.2 31.3 26.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 87.0 84.0 81.0 72.0 64.0 58.0 58.0 U VU U U N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 11.0 14.0 20.0 -5.0 N N N N F F VF U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%