Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250725 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 143.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 146.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.3 46.8 42.3 40.1 49.7 34.1 27.3 17.7 VU VU VU U VU U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 121.0 118.0 111.0 105.0 70.0 44.0 30.0 26.0 F F F F N N U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 148.0 142.0 177.0 164.0 94.0 113.0 18.0 40.0 VF VF VF VF F F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 83.0 78.0 73.0 65.0 60.0 58.0 61.0 F F F N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 -2.0 14.0 20.0 -1.0 51.0 -5.0 1.0 U N U VU N VU F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 14.6% 13.6% 14.1% 30kt / 24h 5.2% 4.0% 4.6% 35kt / 24h 2.0% 3.6% 2.8% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 2.8% 1.6% 45kt / 36h 4.6% 6.4% 5.5% 55kt / 36h 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 15.4% 3.0% 9.2% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 1.0% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 20.2% 5.7% 12.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 WP122025 250725 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 143.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 146.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.3 46.8 42.3 40.1 49.7 34.1 27.3 17.7 VF VF VF F VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 83.0 78.0 73.0 65.0 60.0 58.0 61.0 U U U N N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 -2.0 14.0 20.0 -1.0 51.0 -5.0 1.0 F N F VF N VF U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%