Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  42.8  42.7  54.0  42.0  29.2  23.0  26.5 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 116.0 105.0  87.0  60.0  34.0  27.0  26.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   150.0 177.0 164.0 156.0 124.0  60.0  68.0  49.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  81.0  76.0  73.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   6.0   6.0  17.0  27.0  12.0   8.0   8.0  U  N  N  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        0.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%        8.4%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        2.1%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%        3.9%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.3%        2.3%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        0.6%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.1%        3.3%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 WP122025 250725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  42.8  42.7  54.0  42.0  29.2  23.0  26.5 VF VF VF VF VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  81.0  76.0  73.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   6.0   6.0  17.0  27.0  12.0   8.0   8.0  F  N  N  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%