Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  41.1  43.6  50.3  31.9  29.5  17.8  20.9 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 114.0  97.0  80.0  58.0  33.0  29.0  22.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   170.0 129.0 141.0 108.0 142.0  -5.0  40.0  24.0 VF  F VF  F VF  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  76.0  72.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0  23.0  14.0  17.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        1.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.6%        9.5%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        2.6%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%        5.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        0.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        2.7%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        0.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       14.2%        4.6%        9.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP122025 250725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    143.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  41.1  43.6  50.3  31.9  29.5  17.8  20.9 VF VF VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  76.0  72.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   3.0  23.0  14.0  17.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%