Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250726 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 39.8 51.3 46.3 33.1 21.8 19.5 20.0 VU U VU VU U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 114.0 105.0 87.0 72.0 49.0 31.0 30.0 22.0 F F N N N U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 129.0 141.0 108.0 98.0 70.0 55.0 22.0 16.0 F VF F F N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 76.0 76.0 77.0 73.0 66.0 61.0 60.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 1.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N VU U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 1.1% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 6.2% 7.6% 6.9% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 4.1% 4.7% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 7.8% 3.3% 5.6% 70kt / 48h 1.5% 0.8% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 11.2% 4.6% 7.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.70 WP122025 250726 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 143.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 39.8 51.3 46.3 33.1 21.8 19.5 20.0 VF F VF VF F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 76.0 76.0 77.0 73.0 66.0 61.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 1.0 19.0 15.0 11.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N VF F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%