Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  44.7  41.9  39.4  30.4  15.3  19.2  22.3  U VU VU  U  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 105.0  80.0  65.0  39.0  31.0  30.0  25.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 114.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 105.0  81.0 116.0  30.0  33.0  23.0  25.0 VF  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  14.0  11.0  19.0  14.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        2.8%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       17.3%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%        6.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        6.1%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        5.4%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%        8.5%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.0%        6.5%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        1.8%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%        7.2%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 WP122025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  44.7  41.9  39.4  30.4  15.3  19.2  22.3  F VF VF  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  14.0  11.0  19.0  14.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0  N  F  F VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%