Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  40.9  38.9  40.5  21.0  15.1  17.5  30.5 VU VU  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0  87.0  70.0  56.0  31.0  29.0  22.0  22.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3 107.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  81.0 115.0  65.0  36.0  21.0  49.0  -5.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  13.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       10.6%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        3.8%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.7%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        6.2%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        5.5%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        4.2%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP122025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  40.9  38.9  40.5  21.0  15.1  17.5  30.5 VF VF  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  13.0  18.0  15.0  12.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%