Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.6  27.8  28.8  22.8   8.4  13.0  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  70.0  56.0  45.0  29.0  26.0  22.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 103.0  83.0  82.0  58.0  54.0  47.0  46.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  10.0  10.0  16.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        8.7%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       36.1%       44.1%       40.1%
 30kt / 24h       19.8%       29.9%       24.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.2%       29.9%       20.5%
 40kt / 24h       10.4%       27.9%       19.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       27.6%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%       10.3%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       24.1%       23.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        8.1%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h       20.5%       17.0%       18.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP122025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  27.6  27.8  28.8  22.8   8.4  13.0  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  10.0  10.0  16.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%