Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  31.7  26.6  21.3  17.4  12.6  22.4  14.2  U  U  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  61.0  45.0  34.0  31.0  30.0  27.0  22.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  97.3  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0  91.0   4.0  44.0  15.0  34.0  31.0  49.0  F  F  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  26.0  21.0  22.0  -6.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.1%        9.4%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       37.2%       45.5%       41.3%
 30kt / 24h       22.7%       36.0%       29.4%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       36.0%       28.4%
 40kt / 24h       10.5%       32.1%       21.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.5%       35.6%       29.1%
 55kt / 36h        9.7%       17.0%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%       24.4%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        8.5%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%       12.0%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP122025 250727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  31.7  26.6  21.3  17.4  12.6  22.4  14.2  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  26.0  21.0  22.0  -6.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0 VF VF VF VF  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%