Rapid Intensification Guidance WP122025 250727 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.7 30.1 20.7 16.0 17.6 15.1 21.1 18.9 VU N N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 49.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 23.0 23.0 19.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3 104.3 97.3 97.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 2.0 19.0 3.0 28.0 38.0 27.0 27.0 F U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 23.0 16.0 8.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 U VU U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.5% 5.1% 7.3% 25kt / 24h 23.2% 36.2% 29.7% 30kt / 24h 14.8% 28.4% 21.6% 35kt / 24h 14.8% 28.4% 21.6% 40kt / 24h 4.1% 23.7% 13.9% 45kt / 36h 13.7% 25.6% 19.6% 55kt / 36h 5.1% 10.8% 7.9% 55kt / 48h 5.9% 18.8% 12.4% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 5.3% 3.3% 65kt / 72h 3.0% 7.9% 5.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 WP122025 250727 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.7 30.1 20.7 16.0 17.6 15.1 21.1 18.9 VF N N U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 63.0 63.0 59.0 57.0 57.0 53.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 23.0 16.0 8.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 F VF F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%