Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  22.0  18.5  18.5  14.1  20.9  17.9  21.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  34.0  31.0  29.0  22.0  22.0  23.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6  99.6  99.6  99.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  19.0   3.0  18.0  31.0  42.0  48.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  70.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  23.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        2.9%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       20.0%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       12.4%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       12.4%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       11.7%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       11.3%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        3.6%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        8.7%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.7%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP122025 250727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  22.0  18.5  18.5  14.1  20.9  17.9  21.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  70.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  23.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%