Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  11.2  13.4   8.5  19.1   9.8  19.4  11.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  24.0  18.0  18.0  19.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  84.3  84.3  77.3  75.1  75.1  75.1  77.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  36.0  46.0  41.0  49.0  51.0  17.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.3%       11.8%       17.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       37.4%       32.4%
 30kt / 24h       27.5%       37.4%       32.4%
 35kt / 24h       27.5%       37.4%       32.4%
 40kt / 24h       12.1%       37.4%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       31.6%       12.9%       22.3%
 55kt / 36h       12.6%        4.7%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       15.7%        9.4%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        3.1%        3.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP122025 250728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  11.2  13.4   8.5  19.1   9.8  19.4  11.3  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%