Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  14.1  10.5  14.0  19.4  19.5  16.3  15.3  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  12.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  73.6  67.4  67.4  67.4  67.4  58.0  52.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  32.0  48.0  46.0   6.0  52.0  34.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        2.4%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%        7.1%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        4.7%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        4.7%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        4.7%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        1.6%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        0.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        1.0%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 WP122025 250728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  14.1  10.5  14.0  19.4  19.5  16.3  15.3  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%