Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  14.4  22.6  21.4  18.8  30.7  26.9  20.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  22.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3 107.3 107.3 105.1 105.1 105.1 105.1 105.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  44.0  23.0  40.0  50.0   5.0  23.0  26.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   3.0  -9.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        0.7%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 WP122025 250728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    143.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  14.4  22.6  21.4  18.8  30.7  26.9  20.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   3.0  -9.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%