Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  22.6  17.9  10.2  26.5  11.5  16.8  11.3  F  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3 107.3 107.3 107.3 105.1 105.1 105.1 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  34.0  23.0  45.0  28.0  74.0  45.0   9.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        9.6%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.7%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        4.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        3.6%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%        3.3%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 WP122025 250729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  22.6  17.9  10.2  26.5  11.5  16.8  11.3  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%