Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.3  11.2  19.2  15.1  17.0  17.3  15.8  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  18.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 100.1  95.7  95.7  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  20.0  59.0  54.0  42.0  47.0   0.0  36.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0 -11.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        5.5%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       24.8%       18.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       17.2%       13.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       17.2%       11.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       17.2%       11.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       15.4%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%        5.7%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        8.5%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        3.7%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        6.4%        6.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP122025 250729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.3  11.2  19.2  15.1  17.0  17.3  15.8  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0 -11.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%