Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7   9.6  19.1  23.8  12.4  13.1  10.7  13.8  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  17.0  20.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.3 107.3 107.3 100.7 100.7 100.7  96.5  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  59.0  54.0  32.0  71.0  15.0  25.0  29.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.9%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.1%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.1%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        6.8%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        3.9%        7.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        1.6%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.1%        4.6%        6.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP122025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7   9.6  19.1  23.8  12.4  13.1  10.7  13.8  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  N  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%