Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  17.1  24.0  13.0  17.4  12.4  19.1  18.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  19.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 110.7 110.7 110.7 110.7 106.5 102.4  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  42.0  19.0  17.0  55.0  13.0  48.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.8%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        6.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        3.4%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        4.1%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 WP122025 250729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  17.1  24.0  13.0  17.4  12.4  19.1  18.6  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%