Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  24.0  13.0  13.4  14.7  18.5  17.2  22.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  16.0  16.0  18.0  20.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 110.7 110.7 110.7 110.7 108.6 108.6 110.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  19.0  17.0  72.0  14.0  30.0  29.0  22.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        9.7%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%       10.0%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%        4.7%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        2.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        6.2%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 WP122025 250730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  24.0  13.0  13.4  14.7  18.5  17.2  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%