Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  13.5  11.5  12.7  12.1  11.4  10.8  22.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  15.0  16.0  18.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 110.7 104.4 108.6 106.5 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  10.0  19.0  21.0   1.0   0.0  23.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       10.1%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       12.9%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        5.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%        5.4%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        3.7%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%        7.9%        7.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 WP122025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    143.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  13.5  11.5  12.7  12.1  11.4  10.8  22.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  54.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%