Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  15.6  17.9  12.4  14.5  12.4  16.6  19.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  22.0  22.0  18.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 104.4 106.5 104.4  98.5  87.7  65.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  67.0  32.0  41.0  31.0  23.0  31.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       10.1%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.7%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       12.8%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        4.8%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%        4.2%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.5%        3.5%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        4.3%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 WP122025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    143.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9  15.6  17.9  12.4  14.5  12.4  16.6  19.1  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%